The Middle Class Supports. There is increasing evidence that the economy faces a high risk of recession which could throw millions of middle-class Americans out of work, reduce income and health insurance coverage, and increase poverty. A smart economic stimulus plan could prevent the downturn or soften its effects, but not just any stimulus package will do. To be effective, an economic stimulus package must direct money to those who will spend it quickly, boosting consumer demand and prompting increased production and economic growth. This Senate bill provides even more effective stimulus than the House legislation because the tax rebates are even more closely targeted to cash-strapped middle-class and aspiring middle-class Americans, who are more likely than wealthier people to spend the money they receive immediately, rather than saving it. The inclusion of seniors living on Social Security and veterans living on disability benefits is important for the same reason: not only is it an issue of basic fairness to include these groups but, because they are likely to spend the money quickly, their inclusion compounds the stimulative impact.

The extension of unemployment benefits and the expansion of funding for low-income heating assistance are extremely positive additions to the bill. Unemployment benefits provide direct assistance to the current and aspiring middle-class Americans likely to be hardest hit by an economic downturn while also providing the most cost-effective boost to the economy. Unemployment is already on the rise and it takes longer to find work during an economic downturn when jobs are scarce. People who are out of work tend to spend nearly all of the money they receive in government benefits very quickly, so unemployment benefits provide the quick jolt to consumer spending that the economy needs. What’s more, extending unemployment benefits is one of the most effective stimulus measures yet conceived, providing $1.64 in stimulus for every dollar spent. Meanwhile home heating assistance eases the burden on current and aspiring middle-class families trying to pay high energy bills, freeing up cash that can be spent on other necessities.

The renewable energy tax incentives in the bill are not likely to be effective as short-term economic stimulus, but do represent an important investment in the nation’s energy future. Meanwhile, the business tax cuts, a product of negotiation between the Bush Administration and Congress, are less positive for the middle class because they provide little stimulative effect but deprive the public of significant revenue and increase deficits. Offering tax incentives for business investment frequently fails to generate substantial economic growth because many businesses use the tax cuts for investments they planned to undertake anyway, costing the public lost revenue but creating no additional economic activity. Another drawback is that it takes considerable time for businesses to make new investments and for investments to result in increased employment or purchasing. Yet to be most effective, economic stimulus should have a rapid impact on the economy. Finally, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities points out that business incentives harm state budgets, since state and federal tax codes are linked. Many states are already facing a revenue crunch due to the economic downturn and, unlike the federal government, cannot run budget deficits. The result could be cuts in state and local services that middle-class Americans rely on, from education to road maintenance to public safety.